The Decline American Malls – A Huge Opportunity
The American shopping mall, once a vibrant symbol of suburban life and consumer culture, is facing an uncertain future. Many predict that malls are on the brink of extinction, and while I partially agree, the reality is more nuanced. The era of every major city boasting 5–10 thriving malls is likely over, as evidenced by trends in cities like Pittsburgh and broader data on retail vacancies. However, the decline of traditional malls opens doors to innovative opportunities for redevelopment, offering a chance to reimagine these massive spaces for a new era.
The Decline of Malls: A Pittsburgh Case Study
When I moved to Pittsburgh in 2007, the city and its surrounding areas were home to six major malls, all nearly fully occupied and bustling with activity. Only one, Century III Mall, showed early signs of decline—fading storefronts and lower foot traffic. Fast forward to 2025, and the landscape has shifted dramatically. Pittsburgh is now down to four malls, and two of those are struggling. For example, during a recent visit to The Mall at Robinson, I observed roughly 30% of stores shuttered, broken escalators, malfunctioning entrance doors, and unclean bathrooms. Having worked at this mall years ago, when it was arguably the second-best in the region, its current state—likely the least impressive of the four remaining malls—is jarring.
This trend is not unique to Pittsburgh. According to a 2024 report by Coresight Research, U.S. mall vacancy rates have climbed to an average of 15–20% in many regions, with some malls reporting vacancies as high as 40%. The rise of e-commerce, led by giants like Amazon, has undercut traditional retail by offering lower prices and unmatched convenience. A 2023 study by McKinsey & Company noted that online retail now accounts for nearly 30% of total U.S. retail sales, up from just 10% a decade ago. This shift has left many malls struggling to retain anchor stores like Macy’s or JCPenney, which historically drove foot traffic.
Bright Spots and Adaptation
Despite the grim outlook, some malls are finding ways to stay relevant. Beaver Valley Mall, one of Pittsburgh’s four remaining malls, has embraced a hybrid model by incorporating local mom-and-pop shops and entertainment options. These include unique dining experiences, fitness centers, and family-friendly attractions like arcades or indoor play areas. This approach aligns with a broader trend: a 2024 IBISWorld report highlights that malls incorporating “experiential” elements—such as live music, pop-up markets, or recreational facilities—see 10–15% higher foot traffic than traditional retail-only malls.
However, even these adaptations may only delay the inevitable. Consumer preferences are shifting toward mixed-use developments and open-air shopping centers, which offer a more curated, walkable experience. Pittsburgh’s Ross Park Mall and South Hills Village, located in the north and south respectively, are likely to endure as the city’s last major malls due to their strong anchor stores, prime locations, and ongoing renovations. I predict that within the next five years, Pittsburgh will be down to these two malls, with others either closing or repurposing entirely.
Opportunities in Redevelopment
The decline of malls is not the end of the story—it’s the beginning of a new chapter. With every closed door comes an open one, and the vast spaces left behind by defunct malls present a canvas for creative redevelopment. Across the U.S., developers are transforming former retail hubs into mixed-use developments, housing complexes, warehouses, indoor sports facilities, and even community centers.
For example, the former Century III Mall in Pittsburgh, which closed in 2019, is being eyed for redevelopment into a mixed-use site with residential units, office spaces, and green spaces, according to a 2024 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette article. Nationally, projects like the transformation of Virginia’s Tysons Corner Mall into a residential-retail hybrid or the conversion of New Jersey’s Woodbridge Center into a logistics hub demonstrate the potential of these spaces. A 2023 Urban Land Institute report estimates that over 1,000 U.S. malls could be redeveloped by 2030, creating millions of square feet for housing, healthcare facilities, or tech campuses.
These transformations are not without challenges. Redevelopment requires significant capital, zoning changes, and community buy-in. Environmental concerns, such as demolishing old structures or managing asbestos, can also complicate projects. Yet, the developers who navigate these hurdles stand to thrive in a post-mall retail landscape. As Amazon and other online retailers continue to dominate, the future of physical retail lies in creating destinations that offer what e-commerce cannot: community, experience, and utility.
A Nostalgic Farewell
As someone whose corporate career began in retail sales, I feel a pang of nostalgia for the “good old days” of bustling malls. I remember the excitement of Friday nights at The Mall at Robinson, grabbing dinner at Boston Market, catching a movie at a packed theater, or browsing Blockbuster for the latest releases. Those experiences shaped my youth and the childhoods of countless others. But the world is changing rapidly, and clinging to nostalgia won’t reverse the tide.
The question now is: Who will seize the opportunities left in the wake of these fading icons? Will it be the visionary developers who turn empty malls into vibrant community hubs? The entrepreneurs who bring new life to these spaces with innovative businesses? Or the communities that rally to preserve the spirit of connection that malls once fostered? The demise of the traditional mall may mark the end of an era, but it also signals the start of something new—something we have the power to shape.
Sources
- Coresight Research. (2024). U.S. Retail Vacancy Trends.
- McKinsey & Company. (2023). The State of U.S. Retail.
- IBISWorld. (2024). Shopping Mall Industry Trends.
- Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. (2024). “Century III Mall Redevelopment Plans Gain Traction.”
- Urban Land Institute. (2023). Reimagining Retail: The Future of Malls.